Estimation poker consistently overestimates by 2-3x. Should we just stop estimating?

Question

Our team does planning poker every sprint. Consistently, story points are 2-3x higher than actual effort. Example: a '5' typically takes 2 hours. We've tried calibrating, using t-shirt sizes, and switching to hours. Same pattern. The estimates are used for stakeholder communication, not internal planning. Is there a better way to communicate timelines to stakeholders without the estimation theater?

Drift · Accepted Answer

If your estimates are consistently 2-3x off, just apply a correction factor. Track actual vs estimated for 3 sprints, calculate the average ratio, and multiply future estimates by it. Stakeholders get their numbers (adjusted) and you stop wasting time on estimation theater. We do this and it's surprisingly accurate.

Pike · Answer

Before abandoning estimates entirely, check if the overestimation is systematic or situational. If your team consistently pads every story by the same factor, just divide by that factor and move on. We switched to throughput-based forecasting using a rolling three-sprint average. It is less fun but much more honest.

Estimation poker consistently overestimates by 2-3x. Should we just stop estimating?

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